NASA Ozone Watch
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The Polar Vortex Is Stretching: A Historic November Forecast, and the Cold Outbreak That Hasn't Happened
polar vortex, November 2026, Arctic polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warming, NASA Ozone Watch, ECMWF, vortex collapse, planetary waves, wave-2, stratospheric warming, 10 hPa, 60N zonal wind, winter 2026-2027, Arctic Oscillation, QBO, El Niño, North American winter, cold outbreaks, stratosphere, Pattern Nexus
Published Oct 29, 2026
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Polar Vortex Watch 2026–27: Early Arctic Organization Is Now Pressing Historical Extremes
What started as an unusual late-August structural signal is becoming something much harder to dismiss. The 10-hPa Arctic winds have moved above the historical 90th percentile, the September 12 projection reaches 10.22 m/s against a date-matched historical maximum of 10.29 m/s, organization is now visible lower in the stratosphere near 70 hPa, and the broader 250-hPa jet is showing a strongly wrapped Arctic pattern. This is a full Pattern Nexus rerun of the wind, temperature, geometry, vertical structure, historical rarity, and active solar backdrop.
Published Sep 6, 2026