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Research on policy, economic cycles, liquidity and regimes.
Move from the latest market state to the research explaining why it matters.Follow the research connecting policy, inflation, liquidity and the wider economy.
The article total covers this entire filtered desk. Topic, asset and evidence coverage below relates only to the 12 reports on this page.
In three trading days, the Fed silently pushed nearly $45B through the repo window — including a $14.75B SRF tap and a ~$30B overnight repo spike. This wasn’t panic. It was collateral lubrication for America’s reindustrialization…
The U.S. 10-year yield didn’t “go up” — the 40-year bond bull ended. This analysis shows how 2020 broke the secular disinflation regime and launched a sovereign-credit repricing cycle mirroring the 1970s.
The U.S. banking system sits on top of $223 trillion in derivatives — but the real risk isn’t the notional value. It’s liquidity. This deep-dive breaks down how margin calls, collateral chains, FDIC limits, repo plumbing, and Fed…
Gold didn’t spike randomly — it front-ran liquidity, real-rate pivots, and QT stress exactly like we’ve been discussing. Here’s the long-term channel, why it happened, and the three paths forward as the Fed hits its next liquidit…
A deep dive into the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repo facility — why trillions parked at the Fed aren't “normal,” how it secretly tightens liquidity, affects Treasury auctions, impacts markets, and signals systemic fragil…
The world isn’t becoming multipolar — it's being rewired into competing digital, monetary, and geopolitical corridors. Alliances shift, rails define power.
Stocks slipped and Treasuries reversed course on Oct 30, 2025, as the Fed’s rate cut failed to inspire buyers and Powell tried to walk back December expectations. The bond market isn’t buying the bluff — yields climbed, equities …
CBDCs are moving from pilot to policy as states race to defend monetary sovereignty, shape cross-border rails, and set the rules of programmable money. Here’s the systems-level picture for 2025 and what comes next.
The Federal Reserve cut rates to 3.75%–4.00% and scheduled the end of QT for December 1, 2025. Liquidity is turning, market plumbing is tight, and the setup for renewed balance-sheet expansion in 2026 is forming. This is the melt…
From UPS and Amazon to Nestlé, Intel, Target, and Paramount—here are the biggest layoff waves announced over the last 60 days and why they happened.
The Federal Reserve cut rates on Oct 29, 2025, triggering a brief rally before markets faded as Powell tried to temper expectations for future easing. Bonds didn’t buy the bluff, signaling December cuts remain likely. Full market…
The Federal Reserve just delivered its second rate cut of the year and signaled an end to Quantitative Tightening — confirming what I’ve been predicting for months. Here’s why this pivot was inevitable, what it means for liquidit…
