Fiscal Dominance and the Sticky Term Premium: Why Long Rates Won’t Obey the Fed

Everyone is waiting for rate cuts to bring relief to mortgages, cap rates, and risk assets. But the long end of the curve doesn’t care what the policy rate does when fiscal dominance takes hold. This long-form explainer maps the mechanics behind sticky long rates: net Treasury supply, buyer base rotation, term premium re-pricing, and degraded market depth. If you want to understand why “cuts” may not mean “cheaper money” anymore, start here.