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Source
Open →CPI Table 2: Detailed expenditure categories and relative importance
www.bls.gov
Evidence registryArticle
Open →CPI (November 2025): Headline Cooling, Energy Re-Acceleration, and the “Two-Month CPI” Problem
Published Pattern Nexus research article
Signals & Charts (📈)Article
Open →QE 2026, Phase Two: When the Long End Forces Duration Control
The Fed already ended QT and expanded Treasury holdings through bill-focused reserve-management purchases, but that repaired the reserve layer without suppressing the long end. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.95%, the 30-year at 5.37%, real long yields near th…
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜)Article
Open →The Oil Inventory War Machine: How Long the Global Buffer Can Hold
A full Pattern Nexus reconstruction of U.S. and global oil inventories from the 1970s through the 2026 war shock, including original regressions, depletion scenarios, strategic reserves, refinery constraints, inflation, growth, rates and the path forward. Me…
📊Macro & MarketsArticle
Open →The Plumbing Update (2003–2025) Q4 2025 + Jan 26
A full rebuild of the Pattern Nexus liquidity framework using end-of-month data, z-scores, and a PCA composite (WALCL, TGA, RRP, M2). If you want to understand housing, gold, and tech, stop arguing CPI and start watching the pipes.
Long-Form Thesis Reports (📘🔥)Article
Open →2026 Food Price Outlook: Supply Chains Stabilize, Consumers Still Feel the Pinch
Grocery inflation cools to 2.5% in 2026, while dining out rises 3.7%. We examine what categories are driving food prices, how supply chains are healing, and why energy, labor and AI matter.
Inflation, CPI & Real Rates (🔥📉)Article
Open →Energy Isn’t Spiking, Utilities Are: AI Baseload, Gas Turbines, and the Reprice of Energy Services
CPI “energy” is splitting into two stories: gasoline is deflating while electricity and utility gas inflate. This is a structural load + grid constraint regime, increasingly driven by data centers/AI and met by gas turbines, capex pass-through, and delivered-…
Tech, Energy & AI Economy (⚡ or 🧬)Article
Open →The Household Maintenance Recession: America Is Falling Apart Quietly
Q3 GDP says the economy is strong. The data says households stopped fixing cars, homes, and appliances to survive. This is the household maintenance recession — and it’s invisible in GDP.
Inflation, CPI & Real Rates (🔥📉)