prediction markets
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Ninth Circuit Turns Prediction Markets Into a State-Gambling Control Fight
The Ninth Circuit affirmed in part the dissolution of Kalshi’s injunction against Nevada, holding that Kalshi had not shown the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Nevada gaming law for sports-event contracts. The panel treated the sports products as sports bets rather than CFTC-protected swaps, while remanding the election-contract issue. The decision conflicts with the Third Circuit’s April ruling favoring Kalshi’s preemption theory, increasing the odds of Supreme Court review.
Published Aug 29, 2026
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Fed Chair Odds as a Term-Premium Signal: Warsh Takes the Lead
Prediction markets are repricing Trump’s Fed chair pick toward Kevin Warsh. In the Pattern Nexus framework, this is not “personality politics.” It’s a term-premium and governance-risk signal that can move the long end, especially as allies fracture on trade blocs (Canada–China EV deal) and the U.S. deficit regime persists.
Published Jan 16, 2026