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Open →SOFR
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Article
Open →Orderly Stress: Why Repo Stability Is Masking Deeper Collateral Strain
Repo markets remain orderly even as settlement fails and benchmark collateral strain emerge. This analysis explains why stable SOFR, modest ON RRP and MBS repo usage, and limited Fed operations can coexist with deeper stress in collateral mobility and dealer …
Liquidity, QE/QT & Collateral (💧🏦)Article
Open →The Day QT Died and QE Began: December 1, 2025 — The Quiet Restart of the Liquidity Engine
QT officially ended on December 1, 2025 — but the real story happened in the plumbing. With the RRP buffer nearly gone, SOFR volumes exploding, and the Standing Repo Facility pulling in Treasuries, agencies, and MBS, the Fed quietly shifted from balance-sheet…
Liquidity, QE/QT & Collateral (💧🏦)Article
Open →Fed Just Hiked Into a 5% 10-Year: Why the Next Liquidity Cycle May Arrive Faster
The Federal Reserve just raised the federal-funds target to 3.75%–4.00% while the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.01%, the 30-year at 5.35%, and the real 30-year at 3.09%. Pattern Nexus correctly identified the September hike risk and the developing QE/liquidity…
Rates & Yields (📉📈)Article
Open →QE 2026, Phase Two: When the Long End Forces Duration Control
The Fed already ended QT and expanded Treasury holdings through bill-focused reserve-management purchases, but that repaired the reserve layer without suppressing the long end. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.95%, the 30-year at 5.37%, real long yields near th…
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜)Article
Open →Warsh’s Fed and the Balance-Sheet War: Why “Rates Down” Can Still Mean “Liquidity Tight”
A Pattern Nexus systems read on the incoming Fed regime debate: floor vs corridor, repo backstops, Treasury supply, and why the balance sheet is the real rate.
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜)