Credit Conditions
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QE 2026, Phase Two: When the Long End Forces Duration Control
The Fed already ended QT and expanded Treasury holdings through bill-focused reserve-management purchases, but that repaired the reserve layer without suppressing the long end. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.95%, the 30-year at 5.37%, real long yields near the Pattern Nexus red zone, Treasury doubling long-end buybacks, and August CPI limiting conventional easing, this report calculates the probability that QE 2026 moves into a second phase. It maps the likely program, the names it may use, the dates when it could expand, and the exact yield, reserve, auction, repo, leverage, and credit conditions that could force direct duration absorption.
Published Sep 11, 2026
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The Overburdened Debt Economy: How a $1 Trillion Surge Tightens the Noose on Households, Businesses, and Growth
The U.S. added $1T in new debt in just 82 days. Here’s how rising federal, household, business, and state debts are overloading the economy and pushing rates higher.
Published Nov 29, 2025