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Iran’s Election Pause: The Escalation Window Has Narrowed
The first follow-up to the October 8 Iran forecast confronts Trump’s election pause, checks actual naval posture, and follows the conflict through shipping, infrastructure, fuel and financing. The November 5 endpoint stays fixed. Four original figures, dated source notes and reproducible data are included.
Published Oct 20, 2026
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North Korea’s Nuclear Sub Build and the “Ursa Major” Reactor Claim: The Proliferation Pipeline You’re Not Supposed to Watch
North Korea is publicly signaling progress on a nuclear-powered submarine. Separately, a sanctioned Russian heavy-lift ship sank near Spain in Dec 2024 amid claims it carried undeclared naval reactor housings possibly destined for Pyongyang. What’s confirmed, what’s alleged, and what the strategic geometry implies.
Published Dec 30, 2025