Ninth Circuit Turns Prediction Markets Into a State-Gambling Control Fight

The Ninth Circuit affirmed in part the dissolution of Kalshi’s injunction against Nevada, holding that Kalshi had not shown the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Nevada gaming law for sports-event contracts. The panel treated the sports products as sports bets rather than CFTC-protected swaps, while remanding the election-contract issue. The decision conflicts with the Third Circuit’s April ruling favoring Kalshi’s preemption theory, increasing the odds of Supreme Court review.