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Forecasts

Outlook research and separately reviewed formal forecasts.

See the current view, confidence, deadline, evidence, and what would change the call.
144published records
Forecast research

Outlook and calibration desk

Forecast-related articles populate automatically, while probability-bearing forecasts remain clearly separated as formal editor-published records.

144 tracked

The analysis total covers the complete filtered desk. Sources, topics and draft connections describe the 12 reports on this page; formal records below are a preview.

Forecast analyses144Classified from explicit article signals
Formal forecasts0Probability and deadline records
Cited sources233Article provenance
Draft claims81Private until editorial review
Automatically routed articles

Outlooks, scenarios, and forward-looking research

🧭 IMF Warns Global Debt Could Exceed 100% of GDP by 2029
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜) · 96% relevance

🧭 IMF Warns Global Debt Could Exceed 100% of GDP by 2029

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor warns that world public debt could climb beyond 100 percent of GDP by 2029 — a threshold unseen since the aftermath of World War II. Behind the num…

The Dollar Isn’t Collapsing — It’s Evolving
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜) · 96% relevance

The Dollar Isn’t Collapsing — It’s Evolving

The dollar isn’t dying — it’s upgrading. The U.S. converts liabilities into globally demanded collateral (Treasuries), backstopped by the world’s largest official gold reserve and…

The Pressure Is Spreading: Cuba, Iran and the Next 90 Days
War, Conflict & Escalation Signals (⚠️💣) · 94% relevance

The Pressure Is Spreading: Cuba, Iran and the Next 90 Days

A full Pattern Nexus geopolitical assessment across Cuba, Venezuela, the Americas, Greenland, Europe, Russia–Ukraine, Korea and the Middle East, with 18 regional ratings, explicit…

Iran’s Election Pause: The Escalation Window Has Narrowed
U.S. Strategic Posture (🦅🇺🇸) · 94% relevance

Iran’s Election Pause: The Escalation Window Has Narrowed

The first follow-up to the October 8 Iran forecast confronts Trump’s election pause, checks actual naval posture, and follows the conflict through shipping, infrastructure, fuel a…