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Article
Open →Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the March 17-18 FOMC meeting
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the March 17-18 FOMC meeting
Fed-Rss feedArticle
Open →Fed Minutes: The Cut Trade Broke Because Inflation Has More Than One Engine
The June 16–17 FOMC minutes, released July 8, show a Fed that held rates steady but removed the easy easing bias. The deeper signal is that inflation pressure is now coming from multiple rails at once: tariffs, Middle East energy shock risk, AI infrastructure…
📊Macro & MarketsArticle
Open →Hot CPI, Wrong Consensus: The Inflation Pressure Pattern Nexus Saw Coming
October CPI exceeded consensus on both headline and core inflation. Eight earlier Pattern Nexus articles connect the oil and diesel shock, fertilizer risk, Fed tightening and refinancing pressure, with new Federal Reserve research and the November energy outl…
Inflation, CPI & Real Rates (🔥📉)Article
Open →When Must the Federal Reserve Expand Again? Modeling the Next $Trillions, 2027–2032
Pattern Nexus applies historical Fed balance-sheet data, reserve-capacity accounting, out-of-sample forecasting models and GDP-scaled intervention episodes to estimate how much the Fed may have to expand through 2032. The no-crisis illustrative reserve-suppor…
🧭Nexus ReportsArticle
Open →Hard Assets, Liquidity and the Cost of Leverage
Where the historical relationship holds, where it breaks, and what the evidence says about housing. This November update extends the Pattern Nexus liquidity reconstruction with 37 charts, a reproducible workbook and the complete research package. It compares …
🧭Nexus ReportsArticle
Open →Ample Reserves, Uneven Liquidity
Aggregate reserves can support rate control while funding conditions differ by institution. PN examines October research, overnight-rate distributions, Treasury cash, reserve management, and settlement timing to identify the next constraints to watch.
Liquidity, QE/QT & Collateral (💧🏦)Article
Open →Iran’s Election Pause: The Escalation Window Has Narrowed
The first follow-up to the October 8 Iran forecast confronts Trump’s election pause, checks actual naval posture, and follows the conflict through shipping, infrastructure, fuel and financing. The November 5 endpoint stays fixed. Four original figures, dated …
U.S. Strategic Posture (🦅🇺🇸)Article
Open →The Diesel Trap: Why the Oil War Is Bending Sanctions Before Winter
The October Russia-sanctions waiver adds a new policy chapter to the Pattern Nexus oil-war thesis. I connect the diesel bottleneck to emergency fuel commitments, uneven winter heating costs, the original Iran escalation window, household purchasing power and …
🧭Nexus ReportsArticle
Open →September CPI: Inflation Is Running Hot—and the Oil Work Explains Why
September CPI rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the year, with gasoline responsible for more than half the monthly increase. I connect the report to the earlier Pattern Nexus oil, inventory, diesel and fertilizer research, explain the damage to real wages…
📊Macro & Markets