Core CPI
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August CPI Just Activated the Fed’s One-Hike Option—and Deepened the Long-End Trap
August CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI rose a hotter-than-expected 0.3% even as its annual rate eased to 2.4%. Pattern Nexus decomposes the report into an energy shock, a narrow communications-and-travel core impulse, and still-slow rent inflation. The result activates the Fed’s one-hike option for September, but it does not yet prove that a broad new inflation cycle has begun. This premium report maps the policy decision, the 80% PN September-hike probability, the long-end trap near 5%, the household cashflow squeeze, the rate-policy-versus-liquidity-plumbing contradiction, and the exact data that would confirm or invalidate the call.
Published Sep 11, 2026 Article · relatedCPI (November 2025): Headline Cooling, Energy Re-Acceleration, and the “Two-Month CPI” Problem
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Published Dec 18, 2025