Joint Economic Committee Democratic staff — Analysis of Trump's disclosed energy holdings, August 2026.
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Evidence registryThe Fed already ended QT and expanded Treasury holdings through bill-focused reserve-management purchases, but that repaired the reserve layer without suppressing the long end. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.95%, the 30-year at 5.37%, real long yields near th…
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜)After a conversation moved from a media headline to political age limits, documented forecasts, cognitive bias, simulation theory, and finally language itself, a stranger system became visible: the AI was preserving continuity across ideas that were no longer…
Cognition & Bias (🧠⚠️)The Ninth Circuit affirmed in part the dissolution of Kalshi’s injunction against Nevada, holding that Kalshi had not shown the Commodity Exchange Act preempts Nevada gaming law for sports-event contracts. The panel treated the sports products as sports bets …
Information Ecosystems (🛰️📡)A viral argument says if homeowners already pay property taxes on assessed value, then rich people should be taxed on unrealized stock gains too. But that logic misses the actual danger. Property tax is not a clean argument for expanding unrealized-gains taxa…
🏠 Wealth & Real EstateA forward model links income, spending, investment and credit, then tests its forecasts against modern U.S. data and 150 years of macrohistory. Growth remains the baseline. The research quantifies the route into recession and the severe, persistent conditions…
🧭Nexus ReportsThe July Case-Shiller index reached another nominal high, but inflation, financing costs and weak sales tell a different story for the marginal buyer. Pattern Nexus reconstructs national prices from 1987, tests pre-2008 and 2019 inventory baselines, separates…
Market Cycles & Valuations (📊🏡)