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Rates & Yields (📉📈)
Interest rate trends, yield curves, real rates, duration stress, and Treasury market structure.
Research avenueThe Oil War Is Becoming a Global Economic War
An extensive Pattern Nexus reconstruction linking the Iran/Hormuz disruption with Ukrainian refinery attacks, diesel shortages, Saudi pipeline damage, U.S. and Venezuelan supply, Cuba’s grid, the dollar system, Treasury financing, Fed tightening, public ener…
🧭Nexus ReportsFed Just Hiked Into a 5% 10-Year: Why the Next Liquidity Cycle May Arrive Faster
The Federal Reserve just raised the federal-funds target to 3.75%–4.00% while the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.01%, the 30-year at 5.35%, and the real 30-year at 3.09%. Pattern Nexus correctly identified the September hike risk and the developing QE/liquidity…
Rates & Yields (📉📈)Two Economies, One Balance Sheet: The Unstable Barbell of 2026
Reserve support has returned, but real long rates, fiscal supply, and an AI-energy capital wave are splitting the U.S. economy between capital strength and household fragility. This data-rich Pattern Nexus report maps the four feedback loops connecting Federa…
Liquidity, QE/QT & Collateral (💧🏦)The Oil Inventory War Machine: How Long the Global Buffer Can Hold
A full Pattern Nexus reconstruction of U.S. and global oil inventories from the 1970s through the 2026 war shock, including original regressions, depletion scenarios, strategic reserves, refinery constraints, inflation, growth, rates and the path forward. Me…
📊Macro & MarketsHard Assets Follow Liquidity, Not Inflation? The Full Data Reconstruction — 2026 Update
A 2003–2026 reconstruction of Fed liquidity, gold, housing and NASDAQ data, plus an experimental stablecoin-augmented liquidity index. Meta tags: liquidity conditions index, hard assets, gold, Federal Reserve balance sheet, Treasury General Account, reverse …
🧭Nexus ReportsGDP Slowed to 1.5%—But the U.S. Economy Did Not Weaken the Way the Headline Implies
Real GDP slowed to a 1.5% annual rate in Q2 2026, but the private domestic economy accelerated to 3.9% while nominal GDP grew 7.9%. This Pattern Nexus analysis separates the headline from the internal economy and explains what consumer spending, business inve…
📊Macro & MarketsThe Fed’s Long-End Trap: Why a 4.65% 10-Year Is Already Doing the Tightening
A full July 2026 data reconstruction of the Federal Reserve’s next policy path, showing how a 4.65% nominal 10-year, 2.44% real 10-year, Treasury supply, oil risk and uneven liquidity conditions create a hawkish-hold trap.
📊Macro & MarketsThe Debt Genome: Which Presidents’ Policies Built America’s Debt—and Which Actually Paid Back?
A 70-year counterfactual audit of presidential policy, inherited law, tax cuts, entitlements, crisis packages, and the compounding interest tail. The analysis separates who originated a policy from who expanded, extended, financed, or weakened it—and distingu…
🧭Nexus Reports