Cycles
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The Regime Reset Stack: Yield Curve Strategy, Dollar Rails, Metals Convexity, and the AI-Fiscal Endgame
A Pattern Nexus control-systems read tying the yield curve, dollar regime, metals, crypto, and equities into one machine: why inversions lead recessions, why recessions can be strategically useful for policy, how 2020 proved direct household injection at scale, and why AI/robotics forces the system toward permanent transfer rails to stabilize demand.
Published Feb 15, 2026
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Bitcoin’s Structural Halving Cycle: Energy, Miner Economics, and the $38K Reset
A Pattern Nexus structural breakdown of Bitcoin’s halving cycle, miner energy economics, difficulty adjustment, cycle-to-cycle drawdown math, and why a $38K reset can be mechanical—not catastrophic.
Published Feb 11, 2026
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The $X-Billion-Per-Day Machine: U.S. Daily Spending vs Daily Borrowing (FY2000–FY2024)
A Pattern Nexus structural read of U.S. federal average daily outlays versus average daily deficit financing since 2000 — and why persistent daily borrowing shows up in groceries, housing, metals, and equity valuations.
Published Feb 11, 2026
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When Breakouts Fail: What the Dow’s Long-Term Structure Is Quietly Signaling
The Dow’s secular uptrend remains intact, but repeated failures to break above its long-term trajectory are historically significant. A Pattern Nexus framework read of structure, regime support, and what failed breakouts tend to precede.
Published Feb 5, 2026