Economic Cycles
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The Recession Path: How Income, Investment and Credit Can Turn a Technology Boom Into an Economic Reset
A forward model links income, spending, investment and credit, then tests its forecasts against modern U.S. data and 150 years of macrohistory. Growth remains the baseline. The research quantifies the route into recession and the severe, persistent conditions required for a deeper economic reset.
Published Oct 17, 2026
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The Household Maintenance Recession: America Is Falling Apart Quietly
Q3 GDP says the economy is strong. The data says households stopped fixing cars, homes, and appliances to survive. This is the household maintenance recession — and it’s invisible in GDP.
Published Dec 23, 2025
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The Overburdened Debt Economy: How a $1 Trillion Surge Tightens the Noose on Households, Businesses, and Growth
The U.S. added $1T in new debt in just 82 days. Here’s how rising federal, household, business, and state debts are overloading the economy and pushing rates higher.
Published Nov 29, 2025