long-term rates
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Daily Market Wrap-Up – December 9, 2025
Markets pushed through a cautious session as the first full day of the Fed meeting began. Treasury yields climbed, equities wobbled, crypto rallied, and the structural stress in long-term rates continues to loom over risk assets.
Published Dec 9, 2025
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The Gravity Zone: How the 10-Year Treasury Revealed the Real Neutral Rate
The 10-year Treasury has been oscillating around a hidden 3–4% neutral zone since 2022, revealing the true equilibrium rate the Fed keeps missing. This article breaks down why long rates refuse to fall, why the market no longer trusts traditional rate cuts, how the Treasury’s trillion-dollar TGA fits into the picture, and why quiet yield-curve management is becoming the new operating system of U.S. monetary policy.
Published Nov 18, 2025