macro research
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The Recession Path: How Income, Investment and Credit Can Turn a Technology Boom Into an Economic Reset
A forward model links income, spending, investment and credit, then tests its forecasts against modern U.S. data and 150 years of macrohistory. Growth remains the baseline. The research quantifies the route into recession and the severe, persistent conditions required for a deeper economic reset.
Published Oct 17, 2026
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How to Support Pattern Nexus—and Keep the Public Research Record Growing
Pattern Nexus is researched, written, coded, and operated by one person for more than 80,000 monthly readers. This guide explains free registration, Premium access, the Pattern Nexus Worldview book, direct donations, and where to begin with the strongest public and Premium research.
Published Aug 14, 2026
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The Sun, Liquidity, and Financial Turning Points: The Regression Missed the Regime
A corrected Pattern Nexus analysis of solar cycles, liquidity, recessions, and financial tops from January 1987 through July 2026. The first monthly regression rejected a short-horizon trading signal. The properly specified regime test found that all four U.S. recession onsets in the sample occurred within twelve months of an official solar maximum or minimum, recession months were sharply concentrated around those extrema, and M2 growth was faster on official solar rising legs.
Published Aug 10, 2026
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Hard Assets Follow Liquidity, Not Inflation — A Full Data Reconstruction
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Published Nov 28, 2025