mortgages
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Housing Is the Target: The 2026 Mortgage-Rate Compression Play
Trump’s directive for Fannie and Freddie to buy $200B in mortgage bonds, alongside a still-easing rate backdrop, signals an explicit attempt to compress mortgage spreads and support housing. This framework maps the plumbing, the limits, and what would have to break for home prices to stop grinding higher.
Published Jan 8, 2026
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Housing QE by Proxy: How Weaponizing Fannie and Freddie’s Buffers Turns the GSEs into Political Liquidity Machines
Floating the idea of using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s capital buffers to buy mortgages is more than a housing tweak. It’s an attempt to run QE through the GSEs instead of the Fed, turning housing finance into a political liquidity machine and removing the crash pad when the cycle turns.
Published Jan 8, 2026
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The Housing Collateral Engine: How Shadow Banking, China, and the Fed Turned Mortgages Into Global Money (2001–2008)
After the dot-com crash, the world didn’t deleverage — it rewired. Between 2001 and 2008, China’s WTO entry, Asian reserve accumulation, low Fed rates, and an explosive securitization boom turned U.S. housing into the core collateral engine of the global dollar system. When that engine failed, shadow banking imploded and central banks crossed the Rubicon into unlimited liquidity.
Published Dec 6, 2025
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Half-Century Mortgages and Fantasy Car Loans: How Ultra-Long Debt Turns Households Into Cashflow Collateral
The Trump administration’s 50-year mortgage proposal, paired with viral rumors of 15-year car loans, is being sold as “affordability.” In reality, ultra-long debt structures double the interest burden, trap low-income households in lifetime payments, and weaponize credit against an already fragile workforce.
Published Dec 5, 2025
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Fed Cuts, Then Holds: Market-Implied Path to 3.00–3.25% by Mid-2026
The curve and FedWatch odds point to a December cut, a brief January pause, and more easing into spring—likely landing the target range near 3.00–3.25% by mid-2026. I outline accelerants, risks, and why 2027 could see inflation re-heat as AI/robotics scale.
Published Nov 7, 2025