ON RRP
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Orderly Stress: Why Repo Stability Is Masking Deeper Collateral Strain
Repo markets remain orderly even as settlement fails and benchmark collateral strain emerge. This analysis explains why stable SOFR, modest ON RRP and MBS repo usage, and limited Fed operations can coexist with deeper stress in collateral mobility and dealer balance sheets.
Published Dec 26, 2025
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The 10-Year Isn’t Misbehaving — It’s Warning the System Is Out of Liquidity
The U.S. 10-year yield is rising into rate cuts — not because the market is irrational, but because the financial system is operating on the liquidity floor. This article explains how regional bank failures, QT exhaustion, and the September 18, 2024 rate-cut pivot created the wedge pattern now signaling the next major regime shift.
Published Dec 2, 2025
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Recessions Aren’t the Crisis — They’re the Trigger
Recessions are not the catastrophe — they’re the mechanical pivot that flips the modern dollar system from contraction back into liquidity expansion. A deep dive into why doom prophets misread the cycle, why 2026 is structurally important, and how the funding plumbing actually drives markets.
Published Nov 27, 2025
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QT Ends, Liquidity Returns: Why 2026 Is Almost Certainly the Next Balance-Sheet Expansion Cycle
Quantitative Tightening ends December 1st, and the plumbing shows reserves are already near scarcity. This article explains why 2026 is shaping up to be the next major liquidity-injection cycle, driven by heavy Treasury issuance, reserve demand, and Fed policy shifts.
Published Nov 25, 2025