SOFR
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Orderly Stress: Why Repo Stability Is Masking Deeper Collateral Strain
Repo markets remain orderly even as settlement fails and benchmark collateral strain emerge. This analysis explains why stable SOFR, modest ON RRP and MBS repo usage, and limited Fed operations can coexist with deeper stress in collateral mobility and dealer balance sheets.
Published Dec 26, 2025
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The Day QT Died and QE Began: December 1, 2025 — The Quiet Restart of the Liquidity Engine
QT officially ended on December 1, 2025 — but the real story happened in the plumbing. With the RRP buffer nearly gone, SOFR volumes exploding, and the Standing Repo Facility pulling in Treasuries, agencies, and MBS, the Fed quietly shifted from balance-sheet tightening to balance-sheet backfilling. This was the moment the liquidity regime flipped.
Published Dec 2, 2025
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The Hidden Liquidity Crunch: Repo Stress, QT’s End, and the Dollar’s Trap
A systems-level map of the liquidity squeeze beneath the dollar: repo stress, falling reserves, structural deficits, and the QT halt—why the next policy turn likely means balance-sheet expansion, inflation risk, and a distributional regime shift.
Published Nov 12, 2025