tail risk
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Mar 5, 2026 Market Wrap (8:40 PM): VIX Won’t Relax, Gold Leads, and the Hormuz “Control Valve” Stays Partially Closed
Indexes tried to hold together, but the hedges kept talking: VIX stayed bid, gold/silver stayed firm, and the Gulf shipping/insurance layer remains the real constraint. My read: markets are still trying to price “normal” while paying up for tail risk.
Published Mar 5, 2026
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Earth’s Climate Is a Control System, Not a Thermostat
Climate risk is dominated by circulation stability, not surface averages. This analysis maps solar spectral variability, geomagnetic forcing, stratosphere–troposphere coupling, and AMOC heat transport into a single control-system model that explains why volatility and regional cold shocks can rise even in a warming mean.
Published Dec 20, 2025
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The Supreme Court’s tariff case is an underpriced macro tail risk. A loss could trigger refunds, disrupt trade policy, and force a rapid White House pivot.
The Supreme Court’s challenge to the administration’s IEEPA tariffs is one of the most underpriced macro risks in markets right now. With prediction markets assigning barely a 25% chance of a pro-administration ruling, traders and policymakers are ignoring the possibility that billions in duties could be invalidated—or even refunded. This piece breaks down the legal stakes, the economic shock potential, the emergency fallback tools the White House could activate, and why this ruling could reshape pricing, Treasury issuance, and corporate planning over the next 1–2 quarters.
Published Nov 6, 2025