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Are Auto Sales Predicting a Recession? A 50-Year Regression and the 2026 Signal
Vehicle sales normally weaken before recession becomes obvious elsewhere. Pattern Nexus reconstructs every U.S. recession since 1976, builds auto-only and cross-channel recession models, audits prices, financing, delinquency and buyer concentration, and explains why strong mid-2026 sales reject an immediate recession call without proving broad household strength.
Published Aug 6, 2026
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Jobs on Pause: September 2025’s Delayed Report and the Great Employment Plateau
The delayed September 2025 jobs report shows 119k new jobs, 4.4% unemployment, and a labor market stuck in neutral—revealing the start of America’s Great Employment Plateau.
Published Nov 20, 2025
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The Two- (or Three-) Speed Economy: Automation Is Fracturing Growth — Why MMT-Style Tools Become Inevitable
Inflation cools, rents slip, unemployment edges up—yet productivity rises. Automation is splitting the economy into winners and the automated-away. Here’s why the social contract must evolve, why millions of robots are coming online, and how MMT-style policy can stabilize the transition.
Published Nov 12, 2025
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Fed Cuts, Then Holds: Market-Implied Path to 3.00–3.25% by Mid-2026
The curve and FedWatch odds point to a December cut, a brief January pause, and more easing into spring—likely landing the target range near 3.00–3.25% by mid-2026. I outline accelerants, risks, and why 2027 could see inflation re-heat as AI/robotics scale.
Published Nov 7, 2025
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Fed’s October Pivot: Liquidity Cycles, History, and the Digital Dollar Frontier
Markets now expect another 25 bps rate cut at the Fed’s Oct 28–29 meeting as unemployment rises and repo-market strains flicker. Powell signaled QT’s end is “coming into view,” Waller endorsed another cut, and Musalem said he could support one if inflation risks stay contained. This post connects those signals to the longer liquidity cycle and to where the next easing wave is headed: tokenized Treasuries, stablecoins, and programmable liquidity.
Published Oct 18, 2025