U.S. Debt
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The Price of a Fractured World: Why the 30-Year Treasury Is Sending a Geopolitical Signal
Something about the global system feels uncomfortable, and the last month of data suggests that feeling has a measurable foundation. The U.S. 30-year Treasury has pushed above 5.3%, real long-term yields are above 3%, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, U.S. missile inventories are being consumed across multiple theaters, Russia and Ukraine are attacking the commercial infrastructure of the Black Sea, China continues pressure around Taiwan and the South China Sea, new regional defense blocs are forming, tariffs are fragmenting trade, and governments and AI companies are simultaneously competing for enormous amounts of capital. This Pattern Nexus investigation asks whether the long end of the Treasury market is becoming one of the cleanest aggregate prices of a more fragmented world—and separates that thesis from the much weaker claim that the Treasury market itself is failing.
Published Aug 18, 2026
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The Overburdened Debt Economy: How a $1 Trillion Surge Tightens the Noose on Households, Businesses, and Growth
The U.S. added $1T in new debt in just 82 days. Here’s how rising federal, household, business, and state debts are overloading the economy and pushing rates higher.
Published Nov 29, 2025