Yield Curve Control
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QE 2026, Phase Two: When the Long End Forces Duration Control
The Fed already ended QT and expanded Treasury holdings through bill-focused reserve-management purchases, but that repaired the reserve layer without suppressing the long end. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.95%, the 30-year at 5.37%, real long yields near the Pattern Nexus red zone, Treasury doubling long-end buybacks, and August CPI limiting conventional easing, this report calculates the probability that QE 2026 moves into a second phase. It maps the likely program, the names it may use, the dates when it could expand, and the exact yield, reserve, auction, repo, leverage, and credit conditions that could force direct duration absorption.
Published Sep 11, 2026
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The Gravity Zone: How the 10-Year Treasury Revealed the Real Neutral Rate
The 10-year Treasury has been oscillating around a hidden 3–4% neutral zone since 2022, revealing the true equilibrium rate the Fed keeps missing. This article breaks down why long rates refuse to fall, why the market no longer trusts traditional rate cuts, how the Treasury’s trillion-dollar TGA fits into the picture, and why quiet yield-curve management is becoming the new operating system of U.S. monetary policy.
Published Nov 18, 2025
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The Silent War-Chest: Why the Fed & Treasury Are Hoarding Cash — And Preparing to Control Yields
Overnight repo usage jumps. The TGA surges toward $1T. Washington isn’t “saving.” It’s loading ammunition — to defend the bond market and seize control of yields when disorder hits.
Published Nov 5, 2025