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Forecasts

Outlook research and separately reviewed formal forecasts.

See the current view, confidence, deadline, evidence, and what would change the call.
140published records
Forecast research

Outlook and calibration desk

Forecast-related articles populate automatically, while probability-bearing forecasts remain clearly separated as formal editor-published records.

140 tracked

The analysis total covers the complete filtered desk. Sources, topics and draft connections describe the 12 reports on this page; formal records below are a preview.

Forecast analyses140Classified from explicit article signals
Formal forecasts0Probability and deadline records
Cited sources128Article provenance
Draft claims69Private until editorial review
Automatically routed articles

Outlooks, scenarios, and forward-looking research

🧭 IMF Warns Global Debt Could Exceed 100% of GDP by 2029
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜) · 96% relevance

🧭 IMF Warns Global Debt Could Exceed 100% of GDP by 2029

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor warns that world public debt could climb beyond 100 percent of GDP by 2029 — a threshold unseen since the aftermath of World War II. Behind the num…

The Dollar Isn’t Collapsing — It’s Evolving
Policy Watch — Fed, Treasury & CBs (🏛️📜) · 96% relevance

The Dollar Isn’t Collapsing — It’s Evolving

The dollar isn’t dying — it’s upgrading. The U.S. converts liabilities into globally demanded collateral (Treasuries), backstopped by the world’s largest official gold reserve and…