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Forecasts

Outlook research and separately reviewed formal forecasts.

See the current view, confidence, deadline, evidence, and what would change the call.
140published records
Forecast research

Outlook and calibration desk

Forecast-related articles populate automatically, while probability-bearing forecasts remain clearly separated as formal editor-published records.

140 tracked

The analysis total covers the complete filtered desk. Sources, topics and draft connections describe the 12 reports on this page; formal records below are a preview.

Forecast analyses140Classified from explicit article signals
Formal forecasts0Probability and deadline records
Cited sources135Article provenance
Draft claims66Private until editorial review
Automatically routed articles

Outlooks, scenarios, and forward-looking research

What If the 6–7% Treasury Yield Trade Is the Trap?
🧭Nexus Reports · 62% relevance

What If the 6–7% Treasury Yield Trade Is the Trap?

A lot of smart money is starting to position for a 1970s-style inflation repeat where the 10-year Treasury yield spikes toward 6% or 7%. The chart overlay looks convincing. Inflat…

Interest Rates, Recession, and the Current Environment
📊Macro & Markets · 62% relevance

Interest Rates, Recession, and the Current Environment

A Pattern Nexus deep research analysis on interest rates, recession risk, energy-led inflation, commercial real estate stress, private credit, AI labor pressure, and why the curre…

Feb 18, 2026 Tape: AI Bid, Oil Risk Premium
Signals & Charts (📈) · 62% relevance

Feb 18, 2026 Tape: AI Bid, Oil Risk Premium

The Feb 18 tape was clean: tech/AI led equities higher, VIX bled, oil carried a visible geopolitical risk premium, and the UST curve steepened. Here’s the mechanical read-through …