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Forecasts

Outlook research and separately reviewed formal forecasts.

See the current view, confidence, deadline, evidence, and what would change the call.
140published records
Forecast research

Outlook and calibration desk

Forecast-related articles populate automatically, while probability-bearing forecasts remain clearly separated as formal editor-published records.

140 tracked

The analysis total covers the complete filtered desk. Sources, topics and draft connections describe the 12 reports on this page; formal records below are a preview.

Forecast analyses140Classified from explicit article signals
Formal forecasts0Probability and deadline records
Cited sources33Article provenance
Draft claims47Private until editorial review
Automatically routed articles

Outlooks, scenarios, and forward-looking research

Gold Didn’t Just Reprice — It Quietly Cut Housing in Half
Market Cycles & Valuations (📊🏡) · 62% relevance

Gold Didn’t Just Reprice — It Quietly Cut Housing in Half

Gold’s 2025 repricing didn’t happen in isolation. Measured in gold, U.S. housing has quietly lost 40–50% of its value without a nominal crash. This article breaks down the hard-as…

The AI Wars Are Human Wars
Power Systems & Leverage (🕸️🏛️) · 62% relevance

The AI Wars Are Human Wars

The coming AI wars will not be machines versus humans. They will be humans versus humans—futurists who adapt and integrate AI versus pastists who resist and demand reversal. This …

Earth’s Climate Is a Control System, Not a Thermostat
Systems Science (♾️🔍) · 62% relevance

Earth’s Climate Is a Control System, Not a Thermostat

Climate risk is dominated by circulation stability, not surface averages. This analysis maps solar spectral variability, geomagnetic forcing, stratosphere–troposphere coupling, an…

December 10, 2025: QT Ends, QE-Lite Begins
Liquidity, QE/QT & Collateral (💧🏦) · 62% relevance

December 10, 2025: QT Ends, QE-Lite Begins

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, acknowledged rising downside risks to employment, and quietly ended QT by initiating short-term Treasury purchases to maintain reserves, marking the s…

GoGoGadget 10-Year: Why Yields Are Rising Into Rate Cuts
Liquidity, QE/QT & Collateral (💧🏦) · 62% relevance

GoGoGadget 10-Year: Why Yields Are Rising Into Rate Cuts

The U.S. 10-year just broke above the 4.15% zone even as futures price a near-certain Fed rate cut. This Pattern Nexus breakdown explains why long yields can rise into cuts, what …