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Forecasts

Outlook research and separately reviewed formal forecasts.

See the current view, confidence, deadline, evidence, and what would change the call.
140published records
Forecast research

Outlook and calibration desk

Forecast-related articles populate automatically, while probability-bearing forecasts remain clearly separated as formal editor-published records.

140 tracked

The analysis total covers the complete filtered desk. Sources, topics and draft connections describe the 12 reports on this page; formal records below are a preview.

Forecast analyses140Classified from explicit article signals
Formal forecasts0Probability and deadline records
Cited sources201Article provenance
Draft claims101Private until editorial review
Automatically routed articles

Outlooks, scenarios, and forward-looking research

The Oil War Is Becoming a Global Economic War
🧭Nexus Reports · 62% relevance

The Oil War Is Becoming a Global Economic War

An extensive Pattern Nexus reconstruction linking the Iran/Hormuz disruption with Ukrainian refinery attacks, diesel shortages, Saudi pipeline damage, U.S. and Venezuelan supply,…

Two Economies, One Balance Sheet: The Unstable Barbell of 2026
Liquidity, QE/QT & Collateral (💧🏦) · 62% relevance

Two Economies, One Balance Sheet: The Unstable Barbell of 2026

Reserve support has returned, but real long rates, fiscal supply, and an AI-energy capital wave are splitting the U.S. economy between capital strength and household fragility. Th…