The Sun, Money and the Global Core: What Survived a 375-Year Test
I rebuilt the solar-recession thesis around the dominant global financial core instead of a modern U.S. sample: Amsterdam and the guilder, London and sterling, then New York and the dollar. Across 375 years, the data reveal a narrow combined turning-year anomaly and a strange six-year lead. The deeper pass separates minima from maxima, tests six contraction thresholds and shock exclusions, reconstructs 54 reserve handoffs, deletes every historical block and contraction event, and adds lagged liquidity-interaction models. The effect is not a solar-minimum law, disappears for severe contractions, concentrates in 1850–1899, and does not validate through crops, famine or liquidity interactions. Solar timing may overlay a vulnerable system. Liquidity remains the engine.
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